10月财政数据点评：财政支出缘何骤降？

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]