【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend. Factors such as the decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high inventory, upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, and the downturn in the real estate market contribute to this situation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has slightly declined. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping duties make traders cautious. The export orders increased last week. The social inventory decreased slightly but remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities are in operation. With the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and other factors, PVC is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased by 1.46% to 4520 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest by 107,079 lots to 1,462,620 lots [2]. - On November 18, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4485 yuan/ton. The V2601 contract closed at 4608 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang are under maintenance. The PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) are in production at different loads [4]. - On the demand side, from January to October 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year. The national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year. As of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, the PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory is still high [6].