Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon iron: ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait-and-see approach recommended [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing weak domestic demand, with the decline in real estate investment expanding and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continuing to fall. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and there may be short-term fluctuations [2] - The iron ore market has a marginal loosening of fundamentals, with supply increasing and demand expected to decline further. The market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, but the steel mills' profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials. The prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have an increase in the expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and the demand has some resilience. The prices have strong bottom support [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market shows that the off-season demand for thread steel is declining, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for hot-rolled coil is stabilizing, and the inventory accumulation rhythm is slowing down. The iron water output has rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and the proportion of steel mill losses is expanding. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - The futures market has adjusted relatively fully, and the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range has increased. The cost-side furnace materials are significantly differentiated, and the market sentiment remains cautious, with short-term fluctuations still possible [2] Iron Ore - The supply side shows that the global shipment has increased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has decreased to below the annual average level. The port inventory has decreased at the beginning of the week, and there are some short-term structural disturbances [3] - The demand side shows that the off-season demand for steel is weak, and the steel mill losses are intensifying. The iron water output has rebounded in the short term but is still in the seasonal production reduction trend, with further production reduction space expected in the future [3] - The macro level is in a policy vacuum period, lacking expected drivers. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally loosening, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - The supply side shows that the coking profit is still average, and the daily output has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream is purchasing on demand, with the inventory slightly decreasing [4] - The demand side shows that the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron water output has returned to a high range, with some resilience in demand. However, the steel mill profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials [4] - The futures market shows that the intraday price has dropped significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] Coking Coal - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the coking coal output has increased slightly. The spot auction transactions are normal, and the transaction prices are mixed. The terminal inventory has increased slightly [5] - The demand side shows that the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron water output has returned to a high range, with some resilience in demand. However, the steel mill profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials [5] - The futures market shows that the intraday price has dropped significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the power cost and chemical coke price are expected to decline. The weekly output has decreased slightly, but the output is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing [6] - The demand side shows that the iron water output has rebounded to a high range, and the demand has some resilience [6] - The cost side shows that the price of Comilog manganese ore has increased slightly, and the spot ore price has changed rapidly following the market trend. The manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price has strong bottom support [6] Silicon Iron - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the power cost and blue carbon price are expected to decline. The supply remains at a high level, and the on-balance sheet inventory is continuously decreasing [7] - The demand side shows that the iron water output has rebounded to a high range, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium output has increased, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand has some resilience [7] - The cost side shows that the increase in electricity and blue carbon prices has led to a certain sentiment of bottoming out and rebounding. The price is judged to still have bottom support [7]
黑色金属日报-20251118
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-18 14:04