国投期货农产品日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean Futures: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Palm Oil: Not clearly rated [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Live Pigs: Not clearly rated [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, etc., and provides insights into their price trends, supply - demand situations, and potential investment opportunities based on domestic and international market data and policy factors [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures significantly reduced positions today, with prices dropping rapidly from high levels. 35,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned by Sinograin at an average price of 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. Short - term focus is on the performance of domestic soybean spot and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - In October, the US soybean crushing volume reached 228 million bushels, a record high. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in Brazil is slow, with a sowing rate of 69.0% as of November 15, behind last year's 73.8%. The impact of La Nina on soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. Domestically, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures continued to correct, and the basis weakened. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits. Soybean inventory remains high, and soybean meal inventory has decreased but is still in the millions. Wait for the signing of the new Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation. Consider buying on dips after stabilization [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are performing strongly. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. The cost of imported soybeans has risen, and domestic near - term crushing profits are still poor. Domestic soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal and palm oil. Palm oil's short - term high - frequency data shows a weak supply - demand situation and is currently in a sideways shock. A change in palm oil price trends requires an improvement in the supply - demand situation. Short - term focus on the guidance of the oil supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed - related futures had a weak shock today, weaker than their counterparts. Rapeseed products still have a statistical premium, resulting in lackluster demand, especially for rapeseed meal. The premium of rapeseed - related futures prices is expected to gradually decline as Australian rapeseed is about to arrive in China. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand of rapeseed products is more affected by Sino - Canadian relations, but there are no significant changes currently. Domestic rapeseed supply has variables, and attention should be paid to the arrival time of Australian rapeseed and direct imports of rapeseed meal and oil. Demand is expected to be mediocre, and rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillated and corrected today. The increase in new corn in Northeast China has decreased, and farmers' reluctance to sell has strengthened, with prices slightly stronger. The amount of corn arriving in Shandong has increased slightly, and prices are stable. The inventory of middle - and downstream corn is generally low, and the purchase price has risen with the increase in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in Northeast China. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to correct [7] Live Pigs - The near - month live pig futures hit a new low, and the far - month contracts followed. The overall position increased by nearly 10,000 lots. The average spot price of live pigs is stable. The futures market is trading on the potential future supply pressure. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low pig price in October was likely the first emotional bottom - building. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom - building in the first half of next year due to continuous supply pressure and the off - season of demand [8] Eggs - Egg futures continued to face selling pressure, and the overall position increased. The February contract led the decline. The national spot price of eggs generally decreased. Vegetable prices showed a downward trend, the December contract was approaching delivery and converging its premium to the spot, and the fundamental situation is a high - supply and off - season - demand stage. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month high - level contracts [9]