Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Due to the unchanged overall supply - demand pattern, plastics are expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the near term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price has limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from shortage to surplus by OPEC. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, its performance is not as expected, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased by 0.95% with increased positions, closing at 6785 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 6049 lots to 548344 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $735/ton week - on - week [4]
【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡下行-20251118
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-18 14:09