主要品种策略早餐-20251118

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be affected by the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices. Zinc prices are likely to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with overseas supply being tight and domestic production cuts and demand off - season coexisting. Industrial silicon is expected to run at a high level, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern will improve with the implementation of new energy - consumption standards. Refined tin prices will remain high due to tight global supply, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the supply - demand balance in 2026 [1][3][4][5][6][9][10][12][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy [1]. - Core Logic: Macroeconomically, the US government shutdown ended, and Fed officials made hawkish remarks. Supply - wise, global copper supply is tight, with an increase in domestic port inventory and a rise in copper concentrate TC. Demand - side, the开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined in October, and copper rod production decreased. Copper bar demand is weak. Inventory shows regional differentiation, with LME and SHFE inventories low and COMEX inventory increasing significantly [1][2]. - Outlook: Negative factors such as the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices will affect copper prices [3]. Zinc - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy and a suggestion to sell a wide - straddle option combination [4]. - Core Logic: Macroeconomically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is divided, and the US government shutdown risk is alleviated. Supply - wise, global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with overseas production differentiation and domestic supply also showing signs of tightness. Demand shows an "external strong, internal weak" pattern. Inventory is differentiated, with LME zinc inventory at a historical low and SHFE zinc inventory increasing [4][5]. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upside in the domestic market is limited due to weak demand [5]. Industrial Silicon - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 9000 - 9100, and mid - term view is "range operation" in the range of 8800 - 9300, with a bullish strategy [6]. - Core Logic: In October, production decreased year - on - year. Demand from polysilicon increased. Inventory is at a 7 - year high, but the strong polysilicon price boosts industrial silicon prices [6]. Polysilicon - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 52,500 - 54,000, and mid - term view is "range fluctuation" in the range of 50,000 - 60,000, with a bullish strategy [7]. - Core Logic: In October, production increased year - on - year. Demand from silicon wafers increased significantly. Inventory is stable. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [7][9]. Refined Tin - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 290,000 - 295,000, and mid - term view is "high - level oscillation" in the range of 270,000 - 300,000, with a strategy to sell SN2512 - P - 250000 [10]. - Core Logic: Global tin supply is tight due to the complex resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Processing fees are at a low level, indicating tight domestic supply. Inventory is at a certain level, and the ore end supports tin prices [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Intraday and Mid - term Views: Intraday view is "strong operation" in the range of 94,000 - 98,000, and mid - term view is "oscillation and upward" in the range of 80,000 - 100,000, with a bullish strategy [11][12]. - Core Logic: The spot price has reached a new high. In October, production increased year - on - year, and inventory is still high. However, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve in 2026, which will drive up prices [12][13].