【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to experience weak and volatile trends as the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and the downstream peak season [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard - grade拉丝 remained around 24% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and crude oil prices rebounded after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,488 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,392 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 5,494 lots to 638,372 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, and the PP enterprise开工率 dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 14th, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $730 per ton week - on - week [4]