农产品日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ななな [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, corn, live hogs, and eggs, and provides investment ratings and market trend predictions for each [1] - It also points out the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions for different agricultural products [2][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures reduced positions significantly today, and the price dropped rapidly from a high. 35,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned by Sinograin today, all sold at an average price of 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. Short - term focus on the performance of domestic soybean spot and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - In October, the US soybean crushing volume reached 228 million bushels, a record high. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in Brazil is slow, with a sowing rate of 69.0% as of November 15, behind last year's 73.8%. Concerns about the impact of La Nina on soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina. The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures continued to correct, and the basis weakened. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits, with high soybean inventory and a decline in soybean meal inventory but still in the million - ton level. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation. Consider buying on dips after stabilization [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are strong. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. The cost of imported soybeans has risen, and domestic near - end crushing profits are still poor. Soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal and palm oil. Palm oil is in a sideways shock, and its price trend may change with the improvement of supply - demand [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures oscillated weakly today, weaker than their competitors. Rapeseed products have a statistical premium, resulting in mediocre demand, especially for rapeseed meal. Australian rapeseed is expected to arrive in China soon, and the premium of rapeseed futures prices will gradually decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed products has variables, and the demand is expected to be average, with short - term pressure on futures prices [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillated and corrected today. The increase in new - season corn in Northeast China has decreased, and farmers are more reluctant to sell, with prices slightly stronger. The arrival of corn in Shandong has increased slightly, and prices are stable. The inventory of downstream corn is generally low, and the purchase price has risen with the increase in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in Northeast China. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to correct [7] Live Hogs - The near - month contract of live hog futures hit a new low, and the far - month contract followed. The spot price is relatively stable. The futures market is trading on potential future supply pressure. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low price in October is likely the first emotional bottom, and there is a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year due to supply pressure and the off - season of demand [8] Eggs - Egg futures continued to face selling pressure, with an overall increase in positions, and the February contract led the decline. The spot price of eggs across the country generally fell. Reasons include the decline of vegetable prices, the approaching delivery of the December contract, and the current high - supply and off - season - demand situation. Hold short positions in near - month contracts at high levels [9]