Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are showing a pattern of low prices rising, and since the release of export quotas, both futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. The futures price is mainly in a strong oscillatory state, with the upper limit restricted by high daily production. Continued attention should be paid to the situation of Indian tenders [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong oscillatory trend. The futures rebound the previous day improved market trading sentiment, leading to increased low - price fertilizer stocking by downstream agricultural dealers. The supply side remains loose, with previously shut - down plants resuming production and expected output to continue increasing. Coal raw material prices are still rising, but the increase is narrowing. The start - up load of compound fertilizer plants decreased this week due to environmental inspections in North China, which is expected to improve after the inspections end. After the release of new export quotas last week, market purchases increased, and inventory is still being depleted [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1662 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250907 lots, a decrease of 3842 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 3069 lots and short positions decreased by 2327 lots [2] - Spot: The futures rebound the previous day improved market trading sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers increased low - price fertilizer stocking. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1540 - 1580 yuan/ton, with most increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation decreased, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 52 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [7] - Supply Data: On November 18, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,200 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 82.91% [10] Warehouse Receipts - On November 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]
尿素日报：重心抬升-20251118
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-18 14:20