沪铜日报：关注经济数据发布-20251118

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View - Copper prices opened high and moved low today, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The FedWatch tool indicates that the expected probability of an interest rate cut in December has dropped significantly, leading to a lack of market confidence and pressure on the market. Fundamentally, the copper ore supply remains tight, but with the increase in scrap copper and the partial resumption of smelters, copper production is on an upward trend. The demand side is transitioning from the peak to the off - season, with some emerging industries providing continuous demand. Before the probability of an interest rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are gradually resuming production. After the copper price rises, the production enthusiasm increases, and output is expected to rise. The recovery of government support for recycled copper rod enterprises in some areas is pending tax payment next week. After the copper price rises, the supply of scrap copper increases, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, the rise in the copper price center restricts downstream consumption. Traditional industries have a pre - emptive demand due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and power battery new energy sectors, downstream demand is poor [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 55 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 17, 2025, the LME official price was 10,802.5 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 3.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) is - 41.82 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 57,000 tons, an increase of 7,135 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,100 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 384,500 short tons, an increase of 1,857 short tons from the previous period [9].