海外AI产业链2026投资策略：延续Capex扩张，转向多极拉动

Core Insights - The North American AI narrative has evolved over the past three years, with a shift from FOMO-driven capital expenditures (Capex) to a focus on return on investment (ROI) as the market matures [3][5][8] - The total Capex for major cloud and internet companies is projected to reach $554 billion in FY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 38% [3][18] - The top three AI model providers are narrowing the performance gap, with Anthropic focusing on B-end programming and Google’s Gemini gaining market share [3][25][27] Cloud Computing - Capex in cloud computing is expected to continue expanding in 2026, but ROI is anticipated to vary among companies [24][46] - Google Cloud (GCP) and Amazon AWS are expected to accelerate growth driven by demand from Anthropic and Gemini [15][18] - The Capex of major cloud providers is projected to be $554 billion in FY26, with Google showing the healthiest Capex to operating cash flow ratio [18][19] AI Models - The competitive landscape among AI models is diversifying, with a focus on commercial acceleration [24][46] - Anthropic is expected to achieve positive cash flow by 2027, with a revenue forecast of $70 billion by 2028 [34][45] - OpenAI's revenue strategy balances B-end and C-end markets, with a valuation of $500 billion as of October 2025 [39][40] AI Applications - AI applications are witnessing rapid commercialization, particularly in programming and advertising, with expected revenues in the hundreds of billions [51][54] - AI video applications are nearing a commercialization tipping point, supported by increased computational power [54][55] - The enterprise AI sector is expected to accelerate in 2026 as foundational work in data governance and workflow integration is completed [54] AI Computing Power - The focus of competition is shifting towards developing ecosystems, with significant advancements in hardware and software performance [3][24] - The supply of AI computing power is diversifying, with Google’s TPU hardware gaining traction and AMD and Amazon's Tranium ecosystems maturing [3][24] AI Networks - The network architecture is transitioning from scale-out to scale-up, with a focus on optical communication and power supply solutions [3][24] - 2026 is anticipated to be a critical year for the explosion of silicon photonics solutions and the introduction of CPO networks [3][24] Key Company Valuations - Recommended stocks include Google and Amazon in the AI-internet and cloud computing sectors, with a focus on Snowflake and ServiceNow in software [3][24] - In the semiconductor space, Broadcom is highlighted, with Nvidia and AMD as companies to watch [3][24]