资产配置日报：纷争与避险-20251118

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in Asian markets due to escalating political tensions between Japan and China, with the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI dropping by 3.22% and 3.32% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 fell by 0.81% and 0.65% [1] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 156 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a high level of trading activity despite the market downturn [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines of 1.72% and 1.93%, respectively, with significant net inflows into stocks like Alibaba and XPeng [1][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report notes a rotation in sector performance, with the renewable energy sector experiencing a downturn while AI and semiconductor sectors showed resilience, with respective increases of 0.77% and 0.75% [3] - The renewable energy sector's strong performance prior to November 14 raised expectations, making it more sensitive to negative news, while the AI and semiconductor sectors benefited from reduced structural risks [3] - In the Hong Kong market, technology stocks saw continued net inflows, particularly into ETFs focused on technology, indicating a strong interest in this sector despite broader market declines [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has seen a decrease in trading activity, with the number of transactions for 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds dropping significantly compared to late October [4][5] - The report suggests that the current low volatility environment may favor a more cautious trading approach, with a recommendation to consider spread strategies in the bond market [6] - Recent monetary policy actions, including the central bank's repo operations, have maintained a stable liquidity environment, although there are signs of tightening due to upcoming fiscal payments [5] Group 4: Commodity Market Sentiment - The commodity market is characterized by weak sentiment, with declines in precious metals and industrial metals, attributed to a retreat in global risk appetite and expectations of interest rate changes [7][8] - Significant outflows were observed across major commodity sectors, with notable withdrawals from precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy commodities [7] - The report indicates that the recent pullback in precious metals may be nearing an end, with central bank gold purchasing trends remaining strong despite short-term fluctuations [8]