东吴证券晨会纪要-20251119

Macro Strategy - In 2026, the narrow deficit is expected to reach 5.94 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 276.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while the broad deficit is projected to be 14.54 trillion yuan, up about 167 billion yuan year-on-year, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 9.8%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points [1][13] - The total fiscal expenditure in 2026 is anticipated to be 43.54 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year's growth rate [1][13] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 3%-4%, compared to an estimated 4.5%-5% in 2025 [2][14][15] - The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to ease, with the likelihood of large-scale tariff increases from the U.S. being relatively low [2][15] Industry Analysis - The 2025 Double Eleven sales event saw total e-commerce sales reach approximately 16,950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms accounting for 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year [6] - The coal industry is projected to experience a weak equilibrium in supply and demand, leading to fluctuating coal prices in the first half of 2026, with a focus on high-dividend investment logic [7][8] Company Insights - Leap Motor's Q3 performance maintained positive profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 700 million, 3.3 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 103, 21, and 11 times [9] - Geely's Q3 results met expectations, with an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast to 18.1 billion yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts were adjusted downwards to 19.5 billion and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [11] - Tencent's overall performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 255.5 billion, 285.8 billion, and 318.2 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [12]