综合晨报：美国ADP数据显示劳动力市场继续降温-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see for the market to choose a direction. Gold is in a volatile trend, and there is a risk of decline in the short - term. The US dollar index is expected to weaken. The bond market will continue to fluctuate. For various commodities, they are mostly in a state of shock, and investment decisions should be made according to specific market conditions [14][17][25][42] - Large technology companies are expanding their AI infrastructure through complex financing structures, but the market is cautious. The market is concerned about the information of the next Fed Chairman. If the candidate is dovish, it may boost the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts and improve risk appetite [13] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chairman, and Besent plans to submit a recommendation to Trump after Thanksgiving. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic have established a strategic partnership. Anthropic will buy $30 billion worth of Azure computing power, Microsoft will invest $5 billion, and NVIDIA will invest $10 billion. The market is cautious about large technology companies' expansion of AI infrastructure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month NAHB housing market index is 38. Fed's Barkin agrees with Powell that a December interest - rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, breaking through the $4000 mark. The Fed's cautious attitude towards monetary policy suppresses market sentiment. There is still room for long - short game on whether to cut interest rates in December. Gold is in a short - term volatile and weak trend, and there is a risk of decline [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in October is 17.3%. Beijing supports the issuance of eligible consumer infrastructure REITs. Affected by Sino - Japanese relations and the weakening of US AI guidance, the domestic market is sold off. It is recommended to reduce long positions [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatens to revoke ABC's TV license and says he is interviewing candidates for the next Fed Chairman. The latest ADP employment data shows that the US labor market is weakening, the market risk appetite is decreasing, and the US dollar is weakening. It is expected that the most tightening stage of liquidity may have passed [21][22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan. The bond market continues to fluctuate narrowly. The power to break the deadlock in the bond market is insufficient, and it will continue to fluctuate. It is appropriate to short - sell at high positions. The inter - period spread may widen slightly [25][26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of November 15, 2025/26, 325 sugar mills in India have started crushing, with an increase of 181 year - on - year. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports in October are 750,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. It is expected that the import volume will decrease in November - December. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28][29][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil industry experts are optimistic about the plantation industry. China's palm oil imports in October are 220,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The market is bullish on palm oil prices due to supply shortages and biodiesel demand. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the 9000 pressure level [32][33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased slightly. Brazil's soybean sowing is 69% complete. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. The cost of domestic imported soybeans has increased, but the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans reduces the possibility of domestic soybean shortages. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the external market. It is recommended to pay attention to China's actual procurement of US soybeans and South American production expectations [34][36][37] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has been adjusted downwards. The futures price of jujubes has risen for two consecutive days. The acquisition of jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the upstream acquisition situation [38][39] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the production of China's four major household appliances decreased year - on - year, and the export of steel plates decreased year - on - year. The price of steel has rebounded in shock. The contradiction in the fundamentals of finished steel has not been fundamentally alleviated. The upward space of steel prices is limited. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a shock mentality [40][42][43] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and cassava starch makes the substitution advantage of corn starch slightly appear. The profit of deep - processing enterprises has declined slightly, but the downstream acceptance of price increases has increased. The 01 futures price difference has been repaired. It is recommended to conduct band operations [44][46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is consolidating at a high level. The price in the Northeast is stable, the price in North China is stable, and the price in the sales area has increased slightly. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has fallen after rising. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the grain sales progress in North China and the wheat auction situation [46][47] 2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is stable and strong. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the downstream coking profit is deteriorating. The spot sentiment has回调, and the coal price increase has narrowed. The supply recovery is slow. The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [48][49] 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The inventory of steam coal in Beigang has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices may end, and it may fluctuate at a high level after the inventory turns around. The actual thermal power consumption in November is average. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual winter consumption in December to determine whether coal prices will rise again [49][50] 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Genmin has obtained approximately A$25.7 million in financing for the African Baniaka iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a shock market. The supply is high, and the downstream steel production is declining moderately. It is expected that the molten iron will decline at a rate of about 10,000 tons per week from mid - November to mid - December. It is expected to continue the shock market [51] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 lead showed a discount of $16.88/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash spread increased. The Shanghai lead continued to decline in shock. It is recommended to short at high positions in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [52][53] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 zinc showed a premium of $104.97/ton. The LME inventory increased, and the cash spread decreased. The Shanghai zinc may enter a high - level shock adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions in the short - term, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and short - term internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [54] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rainbow Mining is considering a joint - venture copper mine with Newmont in Papua New Guinea. Freeport plans to resume large - scale production of its Indonesian copper mine in the second quarter of next year. The short - term macro factors are negative for copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low positions in the medium - term and wait and see for arbitrage [55][57][58] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hunan Yueneng starts the construction of a 20,000 - ton battery recycling and 30,000 - ton lithium carbonate project. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high positions after the demand weakens and project resumption is clear [59][60][61] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ramu's Q3 production report shows an increase in nickel and cobalt production and sales. The nickel market is technically weak, and the high - level inventory of pure nickel continues to accumulate. The price of nickel may continue to be weak in the short - term or repair the valuation according to the reduction of smelting production. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesia's supply - contraction measures in the medium - term [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API US crude oil inventory has increased. Oil prices have rebounded, possibly affected by the expected short - term sanctions on Russian supply. The US inventory level is still relatively low. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [65][66][67] 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 18, the CEA closing price was 61.76 yuan/ton, up 1.53%. The new quota allocation plan may reverse the carbon market supply - demand structure, and the CEA price has strong upward momentum. Pay attention to the release of demand [67][68] 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - The polyethylene social sample inventory has decreased slightly. The PE fundamentals are lackluster. If there is a rebound, it is recommended to short. If there is no further negative news, the price will fluctuate in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [69] 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is weakly sorted. The PVC futures price is down, and the inventory is high. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts after the price drops excessively [70][72] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Shipping companies have jointly opened a new route from the Far East to the Red Sea. The spot market is weak, and the supply pressure in December is high. The 02 contract lacks the power to rise sharply, but with the approaching of the long - term contract season, the shipping companies' price - holding agreement may strengthen. It is recommended to treat the current market with a shock - range mentality [73][74]