金信期货日刊：红枣期货：抄底需谨慎，震荡筑底是主基调-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For jujube futures, it's necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing. The main tone is to build a bottom through oscillation, and short - term long positions are recommended [2][3]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - negative line, forming a three - consecutive - negative trend. The short - term market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. - For gold, after a rebound, it is currently approaching an important resistance level. Oscillation will intensify at this stage, and it is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. - For iron ore, it is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is running strongly today and should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy, buying low and selling high [13]. - For glass, the daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory reduction is not sustainable. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, it has broken through the support level and shows no sign of stabilization, so it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [17]. - For methanol, this week, the inventory at methanol ports has accumulated, and the overall unloading speed is good. The inventory in the East China region has accumulated under stable supply, while the inventory at South China ports has slightly decreased. There are opportunities for short - term short and long - term long positions [20]. - For pulp, the import volume in October decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is on a downward trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant. The downstream cultural paper has started sporadic publication tenders, boosting market confidence, but the social demand is flat, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The futures market has shown an oscillating and downward - biased trend recently [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Jujube Futures - On November 18, the jujube futures 2601 contract closed at 9,285 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. But the market doesn't have clear conditions for heavy - position bottom - fishing, and short - term long positions are appropriate [3]. - Fundamentally, the old - season inventory has increased by over 120% year - on - year. The new jujube harvesting progress is 60% - 80%. The supply - demand pressure has not been relieved. The consumption peak season has not started, and the purchasing in sales areas is cautious, lacking substantial demand support. However, the basis has converged, the futures are at a discount to the spot, the warehouse receipt registration volume is low, and the old - jujube discount delivery rule limits the decline, narrowing the downward space of the futures price [3]. - Technically, after the contract fell below 10,000 points, it entered an oscillating range. A trend reversal takes time for oscillation and bottom - building [3]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - negative line, forming a three - consecutive - negative trend. The Asia - Pacific market tumbled, with the Japanese and South Korean stock markets falling by over 3%. The Fed is expected not to cut interest rates in the first half of next year. The short - term market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. Gold - After a rebound, gold is currently approaching an important resistance level. Oscillation will intensify at this stage, and it is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply surplus is further fermented. In terms of demand, except for the remaining momentum in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in a downturn [13][14]. - Technically, it is running strongly today and should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy, buying low and selling high [13]. Glass - The daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory reduction is not sustainable. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [17]. - Technically, it has broken through the support level and shows no sign of stabilization, so it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [17]. Methanol - This week, the inventory at methanol ports has accumulated, and the overall unloading speed is good. The inventory in the East China region has accumulated under stable supply, while the inventory at South China ports has slightly decreased [20]. - There are opportunities for short - term short and long - term long positions [20]. Pulp - The import volume in October decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is on a downward trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant [23]. - The downstream cultural paper has started sporadic publication tenders, boosting market confidence, but the social demand is flat, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The futures market has shown an oscillating and downward - biased trend recently [23].