Bank of China Securities·2025-11-19 01:02Core Insights - The report highlights that the fiscal data for October shows a slight narrowing in the year-on-year growth rate of tax revenue, with consumption-related tax categories maintaining a positive contribution [2][6][7] - It is anticipated that incremental policies will be expected towards the end of this year and the beginning of next year to support economic growth [6][9] Macroeconomic Overview - In October, total public fiscal revenue reached 22,614 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at 20,700 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [6][7] - Non-tax revenue fell to 1,914 billion yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline [6][7] - The domestic value-added tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, which boosted the overall tax revenue growth by 3.0 percentage points [7] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was 17,761 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in spending [7][8] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue was 342 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was 3,414 billion yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year [8] - The income from state-owned land use rights fell by 27.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting local government fund revenue [8] - Government fund expenditure totaled 5,968 billion yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year, with local government fund expenditure declining by 40.4% [8] Economic Growth Support - The report notes that the fiscal expenditure and financing pace have been front-loaded this year, supporting economic performance, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - The upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" in the new year are expected to provide important guidance on fiscal and policy financial tools [9]