铅锌日评20251119：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调-20251119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The lead price is under pressure above due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved refinery profits, and better supply tightness. The previous short positions should be held, and continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on refinery operations [1] - The zinc market fundamentals remain weak, and the zinc price may be under short - term pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter ore supply will tighten, providing some support to the zinc price. The trading strategy is to hold previous short positions and conduct range trading, while remaining vigilant about potential risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price Movement: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.72% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures also dropped by 0.72% [1] - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has no substantial impact on refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans. In the secondary lead sector, operations in Anhui recovered and climbed after resuming production, while those in Henan declined due to environmental protection. The terminal market improved, and the demand for lead batteries increased [1] - Supply - demand Situation: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened at high lead prices, refinery profits improved, and the supply shortage improved [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold previous short positions [1] Zinc - Price Movement: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.36% compared to the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures dropped by 0.69%. The zinc ingot premium in Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, while that in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and that in Guangdong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [1] - Fundamentals: Refineries actively purchased domestic zinc ores, the domestic ore supply was tight, and processing fees were expected to decline. The refinery profit and production enthusiasm improved, and the monthly output was expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand was weak, and some downstream operations were affected by cold weather and environmental protection [1] - Supply - demand Situation: The zinc market fundamentals were weak in the short - term, and the zinc price may be under pressure. In the medium - term, the tightening of ore supply will support the zinc price [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold previous short positions and conduct range trading [1]