糖价再度向下测试5400元/吨支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including sugar, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, pulp, offset paper, and logs, providing short - and medium - term outlooks and trading strategies for each [1][6][7][9][11][14][16][17][18][21]. - Overall, different products face various market situations, with some showing short - term support but medium - to - long - term downward pressure, while others are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and cost, resulting in complex market trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar - View: The sugar price is testing the support at 5400 yuan/ton again [1][17]. - Logic: In the medium - to - long - term, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to see increased sugar production in Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, leading to a surplus in the international sugar market and downward pressure on prices. In the short - term, Brazil's export volume is decreasing, and the domestic market is supported by tightened import policies and expected reduced imports [1][17]. - Outlook: Medium - to - long - term is weak with a downward trend; short - term price range is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the operation idea is to short on rallies [2][17]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - View: The cost of domestic soybean oil has increased, and it is oscillating strongly; palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating [6]. - Logic: From a macro perspective, the market is waiting for US economic data, and there are differences in the Fed's monetary policy. From an industrial perspective, the expectation of US soybean exports is fluctuating, and the planting progress in South America is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high, and the de - stocking speed of soybean oil is slow. The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the consumption of palm oil in Indonesia's biodiesel has increased. The supply of rapeseed in China is currently tight but is expected to increase later [6]. - Outlook: Soybean oil is oscillating strongly, palm oil and rapeseed oil are oscillating. The market is affected by multiple long and short factors [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - View: China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and the internal and external market fluctuations have intensified [6]. - Logic: Internationally, the USDA has lowered US soybean exports, but China's procurement may return. US soybean crushing volume has reached a new high, and South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, but the January shipment is still at a loss. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased [6]. - Outlook: US soybeans and domestic soybean and rapeseed meals are oscillating. It is recommended to buy at low prices around 3000 - 3050 but not to chase the rise [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - View: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures price has a slight correction [7]. - Logic: The supply of corn has decreased due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the demand has increased due to the tight inventory of feed - using enterprises in the sales area. The state - owned grain reserve rotation is ongoing, and the import auction has a high transaction rate. However, the new grain listing pressure has not been fully released [7][8]. - Outlook: Oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Pigs - View: The supply of pigs for slaughter is abundant, and the pig price is weak [9]. - Logic: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms has increased slightly, and the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow. In the medium - term, the number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows is showing signs of reduction [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly. In the near - term, the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is large; in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - View: It continues to oscillate in a narrow range [11]. - Logic: Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, providing some support. However, demand has not changed significantly recently. If there is no strong expectation difference or macro - drive, the rubber price may face downward pressure [13]. - Outlook: It may maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend. Pay attention to widening the RU - NR spread [13]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - View: The futures price maintains an oscillating trend [14]. - Logic: The futures price has rebounded recently but has not reversed. The main reason for the support is the relatively stable transaction of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the market sentiment is still cautious [15]. - Outlook: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are high. It is recommended to short on rallies before butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions [15]. 3.8 Cotton - View: The cotton price is adjusting downward [16]. - Logic: The USDA's November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the domestic new cotton production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is increasing in the fourth quarter. The price is in a correction stage [16]. - Outlook: In the short - term, the 01 contract has a correction risk; in the long - term, the valuation is low and it is oscillating strongly [16]. 3.9 Pulp - View: The 01 contract funds continue to flow out, and the correction pressure persists [17]. - Logic: The main reason for the recent correction of the 01 contract is the continuous exit of long - side funds. There is an obvious position - shifting phenomenon, which accelerates the capital exit. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. The market is mainly driven by funds [18]. - Outlook: Oscillating. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures are mainly in a wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - View: Offset paper is following the decline of pulp [18]. - Logic: In November, the overall fundamentals are at the bottom - building stage. The price is affected by factors such as the paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream demand, and cost. In December, the market may be dragged down by the dealers' price - cutting for sales. In the first quarter of 2026, the market may enter a stage of narrow - range oscillation [18]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly following the pulp as the paper mills' price - increasing sentiment is high [18]. 3.11 Logs - View: It is oscillating in a narrow range and is at the bottom - building stage [21]. - Logic: The supply pressure is high in the long - term, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing in the short - term and is expected to increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [21]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have no clear contradictions, and the spot price is under pressure. It is oscillating at a low level recently [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2208.90, down 0.88% [179]. - The agricultural product index on November 18, 2025, was 928.27, with a daily decline of 0.46%, a 5 - day decline of 0.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.04%, and a decline of 2.77% since the beginning of the year [181].