美国就业市场疲软，贵?属跌幅收窄

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, precious metal prices rebounded slightly after a decline, with the adjustment range narrowing. The high levels of initial and continuing jobless claims in the US, along with the government's long - term shutdown, increased the downward risk in the labor market. US stocks remained weak, and US bonds strengthened slightly. Gold and silver may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains. The core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, such as excessive debt issuance and de - globalization, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit, and silver will benefit from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, an increase from the previous week. The data for several weeks were either revised or not released due to the government shutdown [2]. - According to the Cleveland Fed, the number of large - scale layoff notices issued by US enterprises in October reached one of the highest levels in history, with about 39,006 people receiving advance notice [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report showed that in the four weeks ending November 1, private - sector employers in the US reduced an average of 2,500 jobs per week [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - In the short term, due to high jobless claims and the government shutdown, precious metals may fluctuate. In the long term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and silver will benefit from spill - over effects and the global economic recovery. The expected range for spot London gold this week is [3,800, 4,200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2,234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2,534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2,208.90, down 0.88% [43]. 3.4 Precious Metals Index - On November 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 3,263.58, with a daily decline of 1.39%, a decline of 2.97% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.62% in the past month, and an increase of 47.51% since the beginning of the year [45].