国新国证期货早报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].