研究所晨会观点精萃：美国就业数据疲软，提升美联储降息预期-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The weak US employment data has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the global risk appetite continues to decline. The slowdown of China's economic data in October and the Fed's hawkish signals have dampened market risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed monetary policy expectations. [3][4] - Different asset classes are expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and investors are advised to be cautious. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US employment data is weak, with a decrease in private - sector employment and an increase in continued unemployment claims, which raises the expectation of a Fed rate cut and cools global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: China's economic data in October slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to release liquidity. However, the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. [3][4] - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are in short - term volatility, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds are in short - term volatility, and cautious long - positions are recommended; commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term volatility, and cautious waiting is recommended. [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as coal, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market continued to fall. The slowdown of economic data and Fed's signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended. [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose slightly on Tuesday night. The weak US employment data led the market to assess the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. The short - term trend is volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious waiting and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended. [4] Black Metals - Steel: The steel market rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Real - world demand is weak, and supply is restricted by losses. The market has no new contradictions, and the price has limited room to fall or rise. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [5][6] - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Iron - water production increased slightly, and demand is still strong in the short term, but the bottom of iron - water production is uncertain. The supply and demand situation has slightly improved. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [6] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Tuesday, but the futures prices fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak. The operating rates and daily outputs of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises decreased. The futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. [7] - Soda Ash: The soda ash main contract was weak on Tuesday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. Demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda has slightly recovered. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term. [8] - Glass: The glass main contract oscillated on Tuesday. Supply remained stable, and there is a cold - repair expectation at the end of the year. Demand improved marginally, but downstream demand is still weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Copper prices have fallen recently. The high US copper inventory and the slow de - stocking in China limit the price increase. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine will support the futures price, but there is a risk of a downward break in the short term. [9][10] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fell sharply on Tuesday. The Fed rate - cut expectation declined, and the inventory increase indicates poor de - stocking. If the expectation is repaired later, the aluminum price may decline significantly. [10] - Tin: The supply of tin is still tight, but the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased. The tin price is expected to remain range - bound at a high level in the medium - to - short term. [11] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate main contract rose on Tuesday. After a previous sharp increase, the weighted contract significantly reduced positions. Investors are advised to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [12] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises. [12] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The polycrystalline silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level. [13] Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: The methanol market in the inland region mainly fell. The overall inventory is rising, and supply is expected to increase in the short term while demand is weak. There is a risk of shutdown in high - cost areas, but the gas - restriction devices have not been implemented. It may fall in the short term but is supported by the expectation of gas - restriction and cost. [14] - PP: The PP market showed a weak oscillation. Demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to inventory increases. With the approaching of the traditional off - season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to decline. [14] - LLDPE: The polyethylene market price is weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support will gradually weaken. With weak cost support, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. [15] - Urea: The urea market is firm with a slight increase. Supply pressure persists, and demand is differentiated. The price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize after oscillation in the medium - to - long term. [15] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price of US soybeans remained stable at a high level supported by the news of China's potential purchase. The soybean harvest rate in the US is lower than last year and the five - year average, and the sowing in Argentina is delayed due to floods. [16] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills are loose, and the basis is weak. With the weakening of US soybeans, the meal price may continue to correct, but it may stabilize later due to the slowdown of soybean procurement. [17] - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The supply of soybean oil exceeds demand, but the cost support from US soybeans makes the price stable and slightly strong. Rapeseed oil is in a state of continuous de - stocking, and the price is supported by the Canadian bio - fuel incentive plan. [17] - Palm Oil: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December. Due to the policies in Indonesia, the palm oil price is expected to rise in the next few months. The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term. [17] - Corn: The current inventories of corn in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly strong. [18] - Pigs: The early - morning pig price was stable and slightly strong. The market supply is still in excess, but the farmers' reluctance to sell and the expected reduction in pig enterprises' sales support the price to be weakly stable. [18]