中国期货每日简报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 18, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose slightly; most commodities declined, with the energy & chemicals remaining weak and J and JM leading the losses [2][10][12][13]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures are Iron Ore, Chinese Jujube, and Lithium Carbonate, while the top three decliners are Coking Coal, SCFIS(Europe), and Coke [11][12][13]. - TSR 20 rose by 0.5% on November 18, with supply - side factors including overseas seasonal output increase and domestic factors like停割and warehouse receipt changes, and demand showing no significant change [16][17][19]. - Coking Coal fell 3.9% on November 18, with fundamentals still providing strong support and expected to trade with fluctuation [24][26]. - Coke fell 2.9% on November 18, with supply - demand remaining tight in the short - term, cost support weakening, and prices expected to fluctuate alongside coking coal [29][31]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 18, equity index futures (IH fell by 0.23%, IF dropped by 0.41%) fell while CGB futures (TL rose by 0.06%) rose slightly; most commodities declined, with energy & chemicals weak and J and JM leading losses [10]. - In commodity futures, top gainers are Iron Ore (up 1.4% with - 2.1% month - on - month position change), Chinese Jujube (up 1.2% with - 0.8% month - on - month position change), and Lithium Carbonate (up 0.9% with - 14.0% month - on - month position change); top decliners are Coking Coal (down 3.9% with + 2.1% month - on - month position change), SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.9% with - 0.1% month - on - month position change), and Coke (down 2.9% with + 2.4% month - on - month position change) [11][12][13]. 1.1 Daily Raise - TSR 20 rose by 0.5% to 12,345 yuan/ton on November 18. Supply - side: overseas seasonal output increase is smooth, raw materials are firm, domestic停割in November and RU warehouse receipt deregistration and NR warehouse receipt increase have impacts. Demand - side: no significant change in the past two weeks, downstream purchasing sentiment is good after price decline, but lack of strong directional drivers. Market is range - bound, with rubber prices having bottom resilience but no one - sided trending market [16][17][19]. 1.2 Daily Drop - Coking Coal fell 3.9% to 1,159 yuan/ton on November 18. Futures pressure weakened sentiment, increasing online auction failure rates and causing some coal price corrections. Fundamentals haven't deteriorated significantly, and prices are expected to trade with fluctuation. Supply: main producing area mines' production rhythm is mostly stable, overall supply recovers slowly; import: Mongolian coal clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is high but prime coking coal at the port is tight. Demand: coke output drops month - on - month, mid - and downstream purchases slow after replenishment, but mines have many advance orders, and upstream mines have slight inventory accumulation with little overall pressure [24][26]. - Coke fell 2.9% to 1,649.5 yuan/ton on November 18. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, downstream steel mills may increase maintenance but significant production cuts are unlikely, so demand support remains. Short - term supply - demand is tight, inventory is decreasing, cost support has weakened, and futures are expected to fluctuate alongside coking coal. Supply: coking profits improve after four rounds of price hikes, and supply remains stable with relaxed environmental requirements in Henan. Demand: steel mills' profits shrink but willingness to cut production actively is low, molten iron output is high. Inventory: steel mills maintain strong purchasing momentum and upstream coking enterprises hold low inventories [29][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On November 17, the 4th China - Germany High - Level Financial & Economic Dialogue was co - chaired by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and German Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner. Both sides will strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, enhance financial and economic cooperation, expand two - way market opening, and support the multilateral trading system [34]. - A Japanese Foreign Ministry official visited China from November 17. On the 18th, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs Department Director - General met with him, and China made solemn representations to Japan [34]. 2.2 Industry News - The 4th China - Germany High - Level Financial & Economic Dialogue joint statement mentions that both sides support strengthening exchanges and cooperation in securities, futures and derivatives sectors, encourage cross - border investment and operation of qualified financial institutions, and promote exchanges between regulatory and self - regulatory organizations. They also note the signing of a cooperation MoU by industry associations [35].