工业硅&多晶硅日评20251119：上方承压-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the market trading is light, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Prices: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.10% to 8,980 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: In the southwest production area, it has gradually returned to the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces in late October, and the operating rate decreased significantly. In the north, the number of open furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production cut situation, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. - Investment Strategy: Adopt range - bound operations and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - Prices: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 increased by 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.85% to 52,210 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease month - on - month to about 120,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon market trading was light, with few new transactions. The downstream was highly resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - Investment Strategy: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position, and continuously monitor the implementation of the silicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1].