格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20251119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips is expected to oscillate in the short - term with the main contract reference range of 5630 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Conditions - On the night of Tuesday, the main price of bottle chips dropped 28 yuan to 5706 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell 10 yuan to 5735 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips dropped 20 yuan to 5780 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 763 lots to 5.68 million lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 609 lots to 5.7 million lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, China's polyester bottle chip production was 33.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69 million tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 72.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The production cost was 5271 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 37 yuan/ton, and the weekly production gross profit was - 128 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China exported 46.77 million tons of polyester bottle chips, 5.3 million tons less than the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 480.91 million tons [1] - Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential risks from US sanctions, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract rose 0.83 dollars/barrel to 60.74 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The ICE Brent oil futures January contract rose 0.69 dollars/barrel to 64.89 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. China's INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 1.5 to 462.3 yuan/ton, and rose 3.4 to 465.7 yuan/ton at night [1] - The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish statements from Fed officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting have suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips has changed little. Downstream factories mainly replenish inventory rigidly, and the market has a cautious expectation for future demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in September. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared. Although the relaxation of Indian policies is beneficial to polyester products, the impact on bottle chips is limited. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]