宁证期货今日早评-20251119

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the overall industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The Fed's internal turmoil is strong, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear, causing precious metals to fluctuate. Gold is under pressure and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The crude oil market is generally in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical factors bring uncertainties, so it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. - The short - end bond market is affected by a slightly tight capital supply, but the overall bond market is affected by multiple factors, and its operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. - Silver is under short - term pressure due to the US economic environment, but is still bullish in the medium term [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound [4]. - Rapeseed meal has a weak supply - demand pattern and is unlikely to have a trending upward market [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and its price has short - term support [10]. - Natural rubber has a situation where raw material support and demand suppression coexist, and it will oscillate in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - Gold: Fed internal disputes over a December rate cut are large, and gold is under pressure, with a medium - term high - level oscillation expected. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. - Silver: US employment pressure is high, and economic downward pressure suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver. The Fed's December rate - cut situation is uncertain, and silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [4]. Energy - Crude Oil: US oil inventories have increased, and refinery profits have risen. Geopolitical factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and US sanctions have increased market uncertainty. The overall supply surplus situation drives the price down, and it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. Bonds - Short - term Treasury Bonds: Money market interest rates have mostly risen, indicating a slightly tight capital supply, which is negative for short - end bonds. However, the economic pressure in the fourth quarter and the central bank's operations are positive for the bond market. The bond market is difficult to operate, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. Agricultural Products - Pig: The supply of pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound. Farmers are advised to hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The inventory of imported rapeseed meal is high, and domestic aquatic product demand is weak. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [5]. - Palm Oil: China's October palm oil imports decreased year - on - year. November supply has increased significantly, but Indian demand expectations have increased. It has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. Chemicals - Methanol: The production and port inventory of methanol are at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass: The average price of float glass has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - PVC: The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the domestic demand is stable, and the social inventory is expected to increase. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - PTA: In November, the supply of PTA has decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has short - term support [10]. Rubber - Natural Rubber: Thai raw material prices have changed, and China's rubber tire production and export data show a mixed situation. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [10][11].