国泰海通晨报-20251119

Macro Research - The growth rate of national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a marginal recovery in October to 3.2% compared to 2.6% in September, primarily driven by tax revenue [3][4] - The decline in non-tax revenue has expanded, reflecting a reduced reliance on non-tax income by the government [4] - National general public budget expenditure grew by 2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a significant drop in October to -9.8% compared to 3.1% in September, indicating a need for continued fiscal support to stabilize the economy [4][5] Fixed Income Research - The global monetary and fiscal system has undergone significant changes since 2008, which may provide more relevant insights for predicting domestic economic and fixed income asset trends than historical experiences from the 1990s [7][8] - The government’s increasing leverage has not led to a corresponding rise in household and corporate leverage, resulting in a rapid increase in interest rates independent of the recovery in these sectors [8] Transportation Research - The short-term profitability of the company is under pressure due to maintenance impacts, but the high-quality route network is expected to reveal significant profit elasticity, with a projected increase in profitability driven by rising ticket prices and fleet turnover recovery in the next two years [10][11] - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, primarily due to maintenance impacts [10][11] Communication Research - The company maintained its profit forecast but lowered its target price while keeping a buy rating, as the Q4 performance is expected to rebound despite short-term fluctuations [13][14] - The company achieved a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 221.7%, with a net profit of 6.33 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth despite a slight decline in Q3 [14]