有色金属日报 2025-11-19-20251119

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's reopening, stock market and geopolitical situations, and Fed officials' hawkish speeches. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors [5][9][11] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: The equity market is weak, copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, domestic warehouse receipts increase, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreases. The domestic copper spot import loss narrows, and the refined - scrap price difference narrows [4] - Strategy View: Although there are some negative factors in the sentiment, the copper raw material supply is tight, and the spot situation improves marginally after the price decline. The copper price has strong support. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 85400 - 86800 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10600 - 10850 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - Market Information: The market sentiment is weak, and aluminum prices continue to decline. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreases significantly, and the domestic and foreign inventories change slightly. The spot discount in the domestic market decreases, and the trading improves [6] - Strategy View: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively volatile, and the overseas inventory is still at a low level. The aluminum price has strong support. If the domestic inventory can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price is expected to strengthen after oscillating. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21450 - 21700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2760 - 2810 dollars/ton [7] Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index and LME lead price both decline. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory decreases slightly [8] - Strategy View: The lead raw material is still in short supply. The domestic lead ingot social inventory accumulates marginally. The lead price is in a weak oscillation state [9] Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index and LME zinc price decline. The domestic social inventory decreases slightly, and the LME zinc warehouse receipts increase slowly [10] - Strategy View: The zinc raw material is in short supply, the zinc ingot supply decreases marginally, and the domestic social inventory accumulation slows down. The LME zinc spread decreases marginally. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract price declines. The upstream tin concentrate price decreases, and the smelting plant operating rate recovers but is still at a low level due to raw material supply shortages. The demand in emerging fields provides support [12] - Strategy View: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 285000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 37000 - 39000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price is weak. The nickel ore price is stable and weak, and the nickel iron price accelerates its decline [15] - Strategy View: The recent nickel price decline is due to fundamental pressures. The short - term decline space is limited, but the risk of negative feedback from nickel ore price decline should be guarded against. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions lightly if the nickel iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 120000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14500 - 15000 dollars/ton [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot index of lithium carbonate rises, but the futures contract price declines [19] - Strategy View: The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a state of intense game. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium battery materials and cells, the changes in the main positions, and the equity market atmosphere. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 91000 - 95200 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index declines, and the overseas import loss exists [22] - Strategy View: The overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. However, the price is close to the cost line, and the short - term reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract price declines, the spot price is stable, and the social inventory increases [25] - Strategy View: The market supply is in surplus, the demand is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy declines, the position decreases, and the inventory decreases slightly [28] - Strategy View: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, and the demand is average. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short term [29]