格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [2] Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded, but with persistent seasonal supply pressure and rising commercial cotton inventories, Zhengzhou cotton hit a monthly low. The textile industry entered the off - season, with weakening domestic demand and limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders. Spinning mills had a weak willingness to replenish stocks, so Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 234,402 lots, and the open interest was 941,760 lots. The settlement prices were 13,415 yuan/ton for January, 13,420 yuan/ton for May, and 13,590 yuan/ton for September. The ICE December contract's settlement price was 62.57 cents, up 21 points; the March contract was 64.39 cents, up 33 points; the May contract was 65.57 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 63,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 17, the basis price of machine - picked new cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 1060 - 1100 yuan/ton, stable compared to last Friday, and the pick - up price was 14,460 - 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - According to the USDA's November 2025 US cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, and the abandonment rate remained unchanged at 20.7% [2] - In September, Indonesia imported 26,000 tons of cotton, a 35.5% decrease from the previous month (about 40,000 tons) and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year (37,000 tons), the smallest monthly import since March [2] - On November 17, the cotton yarn futures increased in volume and decreased in open interest, with prices falling, while the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The textile market was lukewarm, with most cotton yarn prices stable, some enterprises offering small discounts, and overall good sales of Xinjiang cotton yarn, especially for 40S and 60S yarns [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rebounded, but due to continuous seasonal supply pressure, rising commercial cotton inventories, the textile industry's off - season, weakening domestic demand, limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders, and spinning mills' weak willingness to replenish stocks, Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Trading Strategy - Close the put option and hold the call option for the previous at - the - money straddle option of the 01 contract; hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]