宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月19日）-20251119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a stage of game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. For soybean meal, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign markets, with a pattern of strong foreign and weak domestic prices. For soybean oil, it is affected by raw material costs and external market prices, and the high inventory is the main resistance to price increases. For palm oil, it is in a stage of bottom - building with limited rebound space [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6] - Core Logic: The US soybean futures price is supported by strong crushing and good export expectations, providing cost support for domestic imported soybeans. However, the abundant domestic soybean arrivals and high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills suppress the basis to be continuously negative. Short - term attention should be paid to South American weather and domestic inventory reduction rhythm [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7] - Core Logic: The soybean oil market is affected by the cost change of raw material soybeans and the price of US soybean oil in the external market. The domestic supply is very loose, with high inventory (up to nearly 1.2 million tons) and weak terminal consumption, resulting in light spot market transactions. Before there are obvious signals of supply - demand change, the price is expected to oscillate strongly within the current range [7] Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][8] - Core Logic: The BMD crude palm oil rebounds from a low level, but the increase in Malaysian production and sluggish exports in November are the main drags. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is in a stage of bottom - building, with limited rebound space [8]