格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's October economic data shows that fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than market expectations, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. The growth of industrial added value above designated size and service industry production index is not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be continuously monitored. [3][4] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.06%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.01% [3] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 403.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 3.7 billion yuan [3] - Funding market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average was 1.53% (previous day: 1.51%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.52% (unchanged from the previous day) [3] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 0.53 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year increased by 0.12 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.10 BP to 2.14% [3] - According to ADP Research, in the four weeks ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2,500 people per week, an improvement from the previous week's average reduction of 11,250 people [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.4% [3] Market Logic - China's October economic data shows mixed performance. Fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than expected, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. Industrial added value and service industry production index growth are not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will optimize monetary policy intermediate variables. The Wande All - A index fell 0.15% on Tuesday with slightly reduced trading volume. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be monitored [3][4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]