渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.19）-20251119

Fixed Income Research - The issuance and transaction amounts of credit bonds have decreased, with yields fluctuating at low levels. The overall change in issuance guidance rates is between 0 BP to 5 BP [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, while the net financing for medium-term notes has increased. Corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds have positive net financing, while enterprise bonds and directed tools show negative net financing [2] - The secondary market has seen a decrease in transaction amounts for credit bonds, while directed tools have increased. Credit spreads have shown differentiation, with short-term spreads narrowing and medium to long-term spreads widening [2] - The overall supply shortage and relatively strong demand for allocation are expected to continue supporting the credit bond market, despite potential fluctuations. The strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains viable [2] Industry Research - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, leading to increased pressure on steel prices, which are expected to fluctuate at low levels [5] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to overseas mining accidents, with attention on the impact of U.S. economic data on copper prices. A potential economic downturn could enhance expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting copper prices [5][6] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a warm macro sentiment, with supply tightening expected to support aluminum prices, although high prices may suppress consumption [5][6] - Gold prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve discussions. Long-term trends suggest that gold's attractiveness will increase due to central bank purchases and geopolitical factors [5][7] - The rare earth sector is facing a lack of significant demand improvement, with prices expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, China's export controls are expected to enhance the strategic value of rare earth resources [7][8]