多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压铜价：沪铜日评20251118-20251119

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the cautious or non - supportive stance of multiple Fed officials towards a December rate cut may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data 1. Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,450, down 450 from the previous day; trading volume was 101,029 hands, down 2,627; open interest was 179,927 hands, down 12,366; inventory was 56,965 tons, up 7,135; the basis was 60, down 135 [1] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 86,510, down 585; SMM flat - copper average premium/discount was 65, up 60; SMM premium - copper average premium/discount was 165, up 50 [1] 2. London Copper - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) was 10,766.5, down 79.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 3.88; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 139.44; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0295, up 0.02 [1] 3. COMEX Copper - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9895, down 0.07; total inventory was 384,517, up 5,078 [1] Group 4: Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply - Multiple overseas copper mines have production disruptions, making China's copper concentrate import index continuously negative, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation; scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees have widened; copper smelter maintenance capacity in November decreased month - on - month [1] 2. Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper products, copper wire and cable, copper paint packaging, copper plate and strip, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rods decreased; lower copper prices led to an increase in downstream new orders [1] 3. Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can try short positions on the main contract at high prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [1]