格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20251119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel futures market for rebar and hot-rolled coils is facing resistance in further upward movement. Given the fundamentals, there was a significant decline in plate exports and a substantial increase in bar exports in October. Last week, rebar supply continued to decline and inventory kept decreasing, while hot-rolled coil supply increased and inventory slightly decreased. The production and inventory of the five major steel products both declined, and it is the off-season for steel demand. Recently, more building material steel mills have resumed production, and the supply side is expected to increase in the short term. The fourth round of coke price increase by upstream suppliers has been implemented. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate. For rebar futures, the first resistance level for the main contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. It is recommended that existing long positions be closed at an appropriate time [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Tuesday but lower in the night session [1] Important Information - On November 17, five domestic steel mills raised the ex-factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1] - In October 2025, China exported 830,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%; from January to October, the cumulative exports reached 6.51 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. In October, China imported 40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; from January to October, the cumulative imports were 400,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30.0% [1] - In October 2025, China exported 2.27 million air conditioners, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%; from January to October, the cumulative exports reached 52.43 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. In October, 6.52 million refrigerators were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; from January to October, the cumulative exports were 68.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In October, 3.15 million washing machines were exported, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%; from January to October, the cumulative exports were 29.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. In October, 10.11 million LCD TVs were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; from January to October, the cumulative exports were 88.55 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1] - In October 2025, China exported 5.97 million tons of steel plates, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%; from January to October, the cumulative exports reached 60.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% [1] - In October 2025, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; from January to October, the cumulative production was 158.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [1] - "China Metallurgical News" published an editorial stating that all steel enterprises should incorporate the principles of "production based on sales, production based on efficiency, and sales based on cash" into their business operations, not turn cash into inventory, avoid disorderly low-price competition, and refrain from making short-sighted decisions that overdraw the future, truly practicing the principles of "being trustworthy, self - disciplined, and law - abiding" [1] Market Logic - The upward movement of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures on the disk was blocked. Fundamentally, plate exports decreased significantly in October, while bar exports increased substantially. Last week, rebar supply continued to decline and inventory decreased continuously. Hot-rolled coil supply increased and inventory decreased slightly. The production and inventory of the five major steel products both decreased, and it is the off-season for steel demand. Recently, more building material steel mills have resumed production, and the supply side is expected to increase in the short term. The fourth round of coke price increase by upstream suppliers has been implemented [1] Trading Strategy - The rebound of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures was blocked, and it is expected to continue the oscillating trend. The first resistance level for the main rebar contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. It is recommended that existing long positions be closed at an appropriate time [1]