格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20251119

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term trend of precious metals such as gold and silver may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.32% at 929.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.51% to 11949 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - From the four - week period ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2500 workers per week, indicating an improvement in the US labor market compared to the previous week's average reduction of 11250 people [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 18.4% [1] Market Logic - The so - called "inflation hawks" of the Fed have made intensive statements recently, making the decision on whether to conduct the third rate cut this year in December uncertain. The data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December is less than 50%. On November 18, the US dollar index rose slightly. Affected by the change in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, COMEX gold and silver both experienced a bottom - hunting rebound, and may be volatile in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]