2026年北交所投资策略:改革深化,融合加速
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-19 02:15

Group 1 - The North Exchange has reached a market capitalization of 900.8 billion, with a significant improvement in liquidity and market functions over its four years of development [2][5][7] - As of November 14, 2025, the North Exchange has 282 listed companies, representing a growth of 248% compared to its inception, with a total market value increase of 212% [5][7][12] - The average daily turnover rate for the North Exchange in 2025 was 5.4%, the highest among all A-shares, with 9.5 million new accounts opened, reflecting a 1.4 times increase since its launch [2][5][7] Group 2 - The North Exchange experienced three major market rallies in 2023 and 2024, driven by different catalysts: policy-driven in the first two rounds and industry-driven in the last [2][19][20] - The North Exchange 50 Index saw increases of 55.8%, 132%, and 47.4% during these rallies, indicating varying market characteristics and participant dynamics [19][20][21] - The market's focus has shifted towards "style rotation" and "industry rotation," with significant impacts from the distribution of industries and the quality of companies within those sectors [25][26][33] Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 includes accelerated reforms, with expectations for the launch of the North Exchange 50 ETF and new stock issuance reforms, which are anticipated to enhance liquidity and stabilize volatility [2][4][12] - The expected number of new stock issuances in 2026 is around 40, with projected subscription yields of 3.75%, 3.13%, and 2.34% for different investment amounts [2][4][12] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on technology and "anti-involution" in the first half, and consumer and manufacturing sectors in the second half, with an overall emphasis on new and recently listed stocks [2][4][12]