豆粕：底部区间已现，突破需更多驱动

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to 28.94%, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, the ratio is still relatively high year - on - year, not enough to generate a profitable CBOT soybean planting market. The marginal reduction in production mainly comes from the US and other small - scale producing countries, having no direct impact on the soybean trade flow. The soybean price needs further impetus from South American planting problems to break through the cost range. The price of soymeal will fluctuate within a range due to the repeated changes in import costs and crushing margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean New - Crop Supply Turns to a Production - Reduction Pattern, but the Global Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains High In November, the USDA forecast further lowered the global soybean new - crop production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing bottom support but not enough for high CBOT soybean planting profits. The US soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom range, and there is strong pressure around the cost of 1180 - 1200 cents per bushel. The marginal production reduction has little direct impact on the soybean trade flow, and a scenario of high soybean crushing margins may require further problems in South American planting [3]. 3.2 China's Purchase of US Soybeans Pressures Domestic Crushing Margins China bought at least 14 batches (about 840,000 tons) of US soybeans on Monday, and the purchase may continue. The current domestic soybean inventory is high, reaching about 9.9 million tons as of last weekend. Although the previous procurement has gradually declined and there may be inventory reduction from November to the end of February next year, with the increase in purchases of US soybeans for December and January shipments and the surplus from Brazil's bumper harvest, the domestic port soybean inventory may be around 4 million tons in March next year, remaining at a certain level [8]. 3.3 The Weather in South America is Normal, and Soymeal is Expected to Oscillate at the Bottom Range The US soybean price will continue to oscillate within a range, with strong support at 950 - 1000 cents per bushel and limited upside due to abundant global supply. The Brazilian soybean offer premium has declined. Recently, the exportable volume of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the demand for US soybeans has recovered, supporting the import cost. In the medium - term, after Brazil's rainy season in December, the market may trade on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, causing the import cost to decline again, but with a clear bottom. The domestic crushing margin will gradually improve with expected inventory reduction, but the improvement may not be significant. Therefore, soymeal will oscillate within a range due to the changes in import costs and crushing margins [10].