商品期货早班车-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also points out that each commodity has its own supply - demand characteristics and market influencing factors, and investors should make decisions based on these factors and market signals. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold rebounded at night on Tuesday, with London gold back above $4000. The US employment data was weak, and domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [4]. - Silver's tight situation is gradually easing, and it is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [4]. Base Metals - Copper prices oscillated weakly. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic weekly start - up data improved. It is advisable to wait for clearer macro signals [3]. - Aluminum prices may continue to decline in the short term. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [3]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Some alumina plants carried out early maintenance or reduced loads, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to change [5]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. The supply decreased slightly, and the organic silicon industry planned to cut production by 30% [5]. - Lithium carbonate prices have support in the short term but face weak long - term expectations. The demand was strong in November - December, but the long - term demand was expected to decline [5]. - Polysilicon prices are affected by news. The supply decreased slightly, and the market was disturbed by news, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Tin prices oscillated strongly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the market was concerned about the continued low exports from Indonesia [5]. Black Industry - Rebar futures are undervalued, and hot - rolled coil futures are overvalued. The supply and demand of steel were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. It is recommended to hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [7]. - Iron ore prices may decline. The supply and demand of iron ore were weak, and the futures were in a forward - discount structure [7]. - Coking coal prices may decline. The steel mills continued to lose money, and the coking coal futures were in a forward - premium structure [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: US soybeans are short - term strong, but the bullish factors have basically emerged. The domestic market may be weak in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [8]. - Corn: As the supply of corn in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - Oils: The overall trend of oils is expected to be oscillating and strong. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [9]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. The international sugar market may decline in the long term, and the domestic market will follow [9]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see. The international cotton harvest rate was lower than in previous years, and the domestic commercial inventory was higher [9]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply pressure decreased, but the demand was weak [9]. - Pigs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply was abundant, and the demand increased seasonally [9]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see. The high - quality apple production decreased, and the inventory decreased [10]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand declined [10]. - PVC: It is recommended to short or conduct a reverse spread. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [10]. - PTA: It is recommended to short the processing margin in the far - month contracts. The supply pressure was large in the long term [10]. - Rubber: It is recommended to operate in a band - trading manner. The raw material prices were strong, and the inventory increased [10][11]. - Glass: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was high [11]. - PP: In the short term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak [11]. - MEG: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the demand entered the off - season [11]. - Crude oil: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply was affected by sanctions and geopolitical risks, and the demand was in the off - season [11][12]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate. The supply and demand improved marginally, but the overall contradiction was still large [12]. - Soda ash: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand were balanced [12]. - Urea: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was in the off - season, but the export news had a certain impact [12].