Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - Bearish: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - Neutral: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Index Futures: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - Treasury Bonds: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - Rebar: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - Glass: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - Aluminum: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - Nickel: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - Tin: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - Gold and Silver: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - PVC: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - Caustic Soda: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - Styrene: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - Rubber: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - Urea: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - Methanol: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - Polyolefins: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - Soda Ash: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - PTA: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - Apples: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - Jujubes: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - Hogs: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - Eggs: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - Corn: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - Oils and Fats: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]
期货市场交易指引2025年11月19日-20251119
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-19 02:23