2025/11/19：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20251119
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-11-19 02:21
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be a long - term direction. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, residents may increase their allocation of equity assets, and with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. Although funds are relatively cautious near the end of the year and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter, the current market trend is still expected to maintain a long - term and slow - rising bull market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4595.80, 4581.40, 4552.40, and 4513.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4569.60, 4555.00, 4523.00, and 4476.80. There were declines of - 20.00, - 18.80, - 23.00, and - 27.20, with corresponding percentage declines of - 0.44, - 0.41, - 0.51, and - 0.60. The trading volumes were 23964.00, 76476.00, 15119.00, and 6304.00, and the open interests were 33649.00, 158826.00, 67946.00, and 18267.00, with changes in open interest of - 3588.00, 4718.00, 3154.00, and 1683.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IH contracts were 3072.60, 3068.80, 3064.00, and 3059.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 3034.00, 3030.40, 3025.80, and 3017.00. The declines were - 36.60, - 37.40, - 37.40, and - 39.40, with percentage declines of - 1.19, - 1.22, - 1.22, and - 1.29. The trading volumes were 9482.00, 32072.00, 5074.00, and 1605.00, and the open interests were 11938.00, 62716.00, 17381.00, and 5086.00, with changes in open interest of - 824.00, 1112.00, 452.00, and 66.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IC contracts were 7215.80, 7143.40, 6960.40, and 6757.80, and the previous day's closing prices were 7152.80, 7079.80, 6897.00, and 6690.00. The declines were - 62.40, - 61.00, - 66.00, and - 69.60, with percentage declines of - 0.86, - 0.85, - 0.95, and - 1.03. The trading volumes were 26417.00, 83267.00, 17679.00, and 7077.00, and the open interests were 31223.00, 139697.00, 60086.00, and 23013.00, with changes in open interest of - 1529.00, 6266.00, 1185.00, and 2263.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IM contracts were 7566.00, 7478.40, 7246.00, and 7012.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7468.40, 7372.00, 7140.00, and 6913.40. The declines were - 81.80, - 90.80, - 91.80, and - 88.80, with percentage declines of - 1.08, - 1.22, - 1.27, and - 1.27. The trading volumes were 34335.00, 125074.00, 23113.00, and 10057.00, and the open interests were 53957.00, 182376.00, 82892.00, and 37997.00, with changes in open interest of - 1680.00, - 1368.00, 2359.00, and 1746.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM (next month - current month) were - 14.60, - 3.60, - 73.00, and - 96.40 respectively, and the previous values were - 14.40, - 3.80, - 72.40, and - 87.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index points was 4568.19, with a trading volume of 177.71 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4201.50 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4598.05, with a decline of - 0.65% [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the index points was 3003.02, with a trading volume of 43.59 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1062.01 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3012.07, with a decline of - 0.30% [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the index points was 7151.02, with a trading volume of 202.21 billion lots and a total trading amount of 3065.40 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7235.35, with a decline of - 1.17% [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the index points was 7502.76, with a trading volume of 271.97 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4062.93 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7590.58, with a decline of - 1.16% [1] - Industry Indexes: Different industries such as information technology, energy, raw materials, etc. showed various percentage declines. For example, the information technology industry had a decline of - 3.39% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300: The previous value of the basis was - 96.54 [1] - SSE 50: No relevant basis value details provided - CSI 500: The previous values of the basis for different contracts were 1.78, - 71.22, - 254.02, - 461.02, and the previous two - day values were - 19.55, - 91.95, - 274.95, - 477.55 [1] - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against CSI 1000 were - 34.36, - 130.76, - 362.76, - 589.36, and the previous two - day values were - 24.58, - 112.18, - 344.58, - 578.58 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3939.81, 13080.49, 7957.60, and 3069.22 respectively, and the previous two - day value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3105.20, with a decline of - 1.16% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25930.03, 50323.91, 6617.32, and 23153.92 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 26384.28, 50376.53, 6672.41, and 23590.52. The percentage declines were - 1.72%, - 0.10%, - 0.83%, and - 1.85% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asia Department Director was dissatisfied with the results of the consultation with Japan. China maintains its stance on safeguarding core interests and international justice, and demands that Japan correct its wrong remarks [2] - The US has modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting some Chinese enterprises. China's Ministry of Commerce will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [2] - Premier Li Qiang called for free trade and less trade barriers at the SCO meeting, and proposed strengthening cooperation in areas such as new energy [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port is ready for the full - island customs - closure operation, and more financial reform and opening - up measures will be piloted in Hainan [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Shanghai will accelerate the construction of "good houses", promote the renovation of urban villages, and expand the supply of affordable housing [2] - Jiangsu will conduct a pilot program for real - estate trust property registration in Nanjing and Suzhou [2] - Chongqing plans to reach an AI terminal industry scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - China will standardize the management of satellite navigation and positioning reference stations from January 1st next year [2]