2025年11月19日申万期货品种策略日报-国债-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current economic fundamentals are weak, and the central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance. Market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably ample, which provides some support for Treasury bond futures prices. With the recent start of position transfer, it is recommended to plan for position transfer [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2512 contract rising 0.01% and its open interest decreasing [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 0.4bp, DR007 rate fell 0.27bp, and GC007 rate rose 1.1bp [2]. Spot Market - Yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.04bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 29.71bp [2]. Overseas Market - The 10Y US Treasury bond yield fell 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield fell 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 1.4bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in urban China in October were announced, with the 16 - 24 age group at 17.3%, the 25 - 29 age group at 7.2%, and the 30 - 59 age group at 3.8% [3]. - The scale of US Treasury bonds held overseas in September slightly declined from the record high in August. China's holdings decreased by 500 million US dollars to 700.5 billion US dollars [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending for some terms reached new highs since July [3]. - US Treasury bond yields collectively declined [3]. Comment and Strategy - Treasury bond futures prices rose slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.801%. The central bank's net investment and other factors affected the market. With weak economic data, the central bank's policy stance supports Treasury bond futures prices, and position transfer planning is recommended [3].