甲醇日报：港口表现疲软，现实库存压力大-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port performance of methanol is weak, and there is a large real - inventory pressure. The key lies in when the winter shutdown of Iranian devices will be implemented. [1][2] - The port inventory is at a historical high, with the inventory in Jiangsu, a major trading hub, remaining at a high level, and the MTO inventory in Zhejiang accumulating rapidly. [2] - Inland, the auction atmosphere in the northwest was average at the beginning of the week and slightly improved on Tuesday. Some MTO devices are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong. [3] - The window for ports to flow back to the inland has opened, but the support is still weak because the inland is also in the off - season. [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has been continuously decreasing, formaldehyde is operating at a low load in the off - season, and the MTBE operating rate is performing well. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and the basis of methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong relative to the main futures. It also shows the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [6][7][9] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. [6][25][26] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - The report provides data on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol in China (including integrated ones). [6][35][36] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It shows the price differences in different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. [6][40][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether. [6][51][56]