铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].