Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is in a volatile state, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 3939.81 points, and over 4100 stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given, such as steel and ore may be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term; lithium carbonate may see a price correction in Q1 2026 but offers a chance to buy on dips [11][12][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. A - shares are volatile and declining, with most stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may be due to technical factors, export drag, "anti - involution" impact, and the real - estate cycle [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Although the market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, there is still a possibility of interest - rate cuts. Maintain a bullish view on the bond market due to the decline in fiscal policy. The tax - payment period has tightened the capital market, and the bond market's news is light. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [8]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Future market view: In the short - term, the industry may return to fundamentals after a series of macro - events. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro - expectations. - Fundamental analysis: Demand is weak, supply may decline later, and inventory is high compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, while coal and coke futures prices are weak. Steel prices are likely to remain weak. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. - Spot market: Steel and iron ore spot prices show different trends, and the overall trading volume is poor [10][11]. Coal and Coke - View: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term. Later, pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot - metal production. - Fluctuation reason: Coal production has increased slightly but remains low, and coke production is in a loss state. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is still supported in the short - term. - Future outlook: The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium - term, but it may increase in the short - term. The weakening demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk still restrict the prices of coal and coke [12]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The volatility of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The market is still in a volatile range, and there is no obvious negative feedback [13]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: The current fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in the power sector in Q1 2026. If production resumes at Jiaxiaowo and demand weakens, the price may continue to correct. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is in a range - bound state and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - Polysilicon: The industry still has expectations for "anti - involution." The spot price is firm, and the supply - demand contradiction is weak. It will continue to be volatile [18]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The high cost resists price declines, and it is in a low - level volatile state. - Future outlook: The USDA's November supply - demand report is bearish, and domestic supply is large while demand is weak. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, which limits the decline [21]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar supply - demand outlook is bearish. Before the large - scale impact of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. There is still supply pressure in the long - term. - Future outlook: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic new sugar production is increasing, and the low cost of imported sugar suppresses the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures [23]. Eggs - View: The spot market is weak, and the futures price has declined to correct the premium. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the probability of a significant price increase before the Spring Festival is low. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [26]. Apples - View: The price is in a volatile state. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is low while the price is high. The follow - up consumption will affect the future price [28]. Corn - View: Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. The price may correct, but the decline space is limited [29]. Red Dates - View: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable at a low level and are in a volatile and slightly upward state [30]. Pigs - Overall view: The supply pressure continues, and demand is average. The spot price is likely to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [30]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: The market is balancing the impact of supply surplus and geopolitical conflicts. The supply is expected to be in surplus in Q1 2026, and OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but this has not fundamentally changed the situation. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to be volatile [33]. Fuel Oil - The price is influenced by geopolitical and macro - factors and will follow the trend of crude - oil prices. The supply is loose, and demand is weak [34]. Plastics - View: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to be weak and volatile. However, the high production cost of upstream enterprises may provide some support [35]. Rubber - Strategy: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between RU and NR. After the price rebounds, appropriately reduce the position of selling out - of - the - money put options. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [36]. Methanol - View: The market is highly volatile due to factors such as whether Iran restricts gas supply and port inventory changes. The supply pressure is large, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month contracts can be slightly long after a rebound [37]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is declining, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. There are factors driving the long - position, such as rising coal prices. It is recommended to seize long - position opportunities [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. Pulp - The market sentiment has weakened, and the price is in a wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are weak and volatile, and the spot price has declined. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is expected to be under pressure [46]. Urea - The spot price is expected to strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be strong [47]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is in a short - term range - bound state. It is advisable to be cautious when going long and can sell call options after a rebound [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - The downstream demand is insufficient, and the market lacks continuous driving force. It is expected to be in a volatile state in the short - term [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Although the short - term fundamentals are favorable, the price has risen significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the rise. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [44].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251119
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-19 02:29