外汇专题报告：结售汇降温，市场静待再定价

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In October, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales significantly declined. Enterprises' arrangements for foreign exchange settlement, purchase, and hedging at both the spot and forward ends were more moderate than the previous month. The surplus of the current account of foreign-related receipts and payments reached a new high for the year, with goods trade being the main contributor, and the net outflow pressure of the capital and financial accounts also eased. Against the backdrop of the delayed release of key data, the USD/CNY exchange rate continued its repricing trend and is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 in the short term [3]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance: In October, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales narrowed from the previous value of $51.023 billion to $17.679 billion, mainly due to the simultaneous weakening of the agency and bank self - channels. The surplus on the agency side decreased from $51.758 billion to $21.426 billion, and the bank's self - foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit widened from - $734 million to - $3.748 billion [10][13]. - Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Willingness: In October, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY increased by 0.38% on average compared to the previous month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions rose to $42.896 billion. The forward market showed characteristics of "weaker signing, a significant decline in performance, and a cautious hedging rhythm." The signing amounts of forward foreign exchange sales and settlement decreased by $655 million and $102 million respectively compared to the previous month. The performance of forward foreign exchange settlement decreased by $6.816 billion, and that of forward foreign exchange purchase decreased by $3.716 billion [14][15]. Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure Analysis - Bank Self - Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales: Bank internal foreign exchange settlement and sales activities mainly include external payments of dividends, profits, and capital injections. The scale of funds is small and seasonal, having limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [19]. - Bank Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales: In October, foreign - related receipts and payments turned positive, and the current account surplus reached a new high for the year. The surplus of the current account increased from $52.879 billion to $74.66 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $90.133 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial accounts narrowed from - $57.791 billion to - $24.567 billion [24]. Deconstruction of October Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - Securities Investment: In October, the trading volumes of Northbound Stock Connect and Southbound Stock Connect decreased simultaneously. The trading volumes of Northbound Stock Connect and Southbound Stock Connect dropped to 4,391.243 billion yuan and 2,118.747 billion yuan respectively. In contrast, the overseas bond custody volume continued to rise moderately [28]. - Goods Trade: In October, the global manufacturing prosperity improved marginally, but regional differentiation was still obvious. The global manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 50.7 in September to 50.8, while China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49. The current account surplus in the foreign - related receipts and payments of China in October was mainly contributed by the goods trade item [33]. - Service Trade: In October, the global service industry continued its expansion trend, but the performance of major economies was differentiated. The global service industry PMI rose to 53.40, and China's service industry PMI also rose to 50.20 [38]. Exchange Rate Recent Views The US government shutdown has just ended, and key employment and inflation data are delayed or not released. The market's judgment on the US economic prosperity can only rely on alternative indicators and official statements. The probability of a December interest rate cut in the US has dropped below 50%. The US dollar index is still fluctuating around 99, and the core trading logic is "US dollar repricing." The RMB is relatively stable, with lower sensitivity to external disturbances than other Asian currencies. It is currently fluctuating around 7.10 [6].