原油日报：美沙会晤后预计欧佩克将维持现有产量计划-20251119

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - As of the close, the December light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 83 cents to $60.74 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; the January Brent crude oil futures price rose 69 cents to $64.89 per barrel, a 1.07% increase; the SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.74% at 466 yuan per barrel [1] - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories were 4.448 million barrels (previous value: 1.3 million barrels), API crude oil throughput was 303,000 barrels per day (previous value: 502,000 barrels per day), API gasoline inventories were 1.546 million barrels (previous value: -1.385 million barrels), and API refined oil inventories were 577,000 barrels (previous value: 944,000 barrels) [1] - Goldman Sachs expects that by 2026/27, TTF natural gas prices will be 29/20 euros per megawatt - hour, JKM natural gas prices will be $10.50/7.30 per million British thermal units; by 2028/2029, TTF natural gas prices will reach 12/12 euros per megawatt - hour, JKM natural gas prices will reach $4.40/4.45 per million British thermal units, and Henry Hub natural gas prices will reach $2.70/2.75 per million British thermal units [1] - The Israeli Defense Forces submitted a position paper opposing the possible US sale of F - 35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, warning it could weaken Israel's air superiority in the Middle East [1] - Turkey's state - owned energy company TPAO plans to issue up to $4 billion in Islamic bonds by the end of this year to boost its expanding oil and gas production [1] - The Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Ukraine's Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants have been operating at reduced power for the past ten days due to military attacks on substations [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - After the meeting between the Saudi Crown Prince and Trump, the US - Saudi relationship remains close. Trump emphasized a gasoline price of $2 per gallon. Under the current political situation, Saudi Arabia is more likely to cooperate with Trump to lower oil prices and control inflation, and is unlikely to return to production - cut to support prices unless oil prices drop significantly. Trump also doesn't want OPEC to implement production - cut plans again. So, OPEC's production policy is not expected to change significantly in the short term [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil price has strong short - term drivers. Short - term strategy is to go long on diesel cracking (event - driven), and medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events; upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]