农产品日报：供强需弱持续，郑棉短期承压-20251119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption, the supply - demand situation won't be too loose, and cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, in the short term, the support at around 5400 is strong, and it will fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [6] - Regarding pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Group 3: Summary According to Cotton - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,558 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1163, up 29 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1394, up 38 from the previous day [1] - In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (10%) from September and 20,000 tons (15.6%) from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4%. From September 2025 to August 2026, the cumulative cotton imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report significantly increased the US cotton production. The global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment. After the data release, the US cotton futures price fell. With the new cotton concentratedly listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure is still being released, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, since the National Day holiday, as the harvesting progress accelerated, the market's expectation of new cotton production declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, supporting the previous upward trend of the futures price. However, the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall, and the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was not prosperous, with limited order increments mainly in small and short orders. Now in the off - season of the textile industry, textile enterprises purchase cotton raw materials as needed, and the demand support is insufficient [2] Group 4: Summary According to Sugar - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5407 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 193, up 21 from the previous day [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while the consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's supply remains strong, and the production outlook for the next season is optimistic. India's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, and the export expectation increases. Thailand's sugar production is also expected to increase, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the futures price. However, India's exports are still difficult to increase in the short term, and the supply pressure in the later stage of Brazil's sugar - crushing season is gradually weakening, so the short - term decline space of raw sugar may be limited. In the long - term, the surplus pattern restricts the rebound momentum of raw sugar, and it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range [4] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic sugar production in the new season is still expected to increase strongly. However, the current price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the season. Coupled with the stricter control policy on syrup, it provides short - term support for sugar prices, and the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [4] Group 5: Summary According to Pulp - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5408 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 + 142, up 66 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 - 283, up 66 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot prices of imported wood pulp mostly stabilized, with some pulp varieties showing a weak trend. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weakened. The shipment of imported softwood pulp by traders was still slow, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The imported hardwood pulp market traders continued to hold prices, and downstream enterprises mostly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The trading in the imported natural pulp and imported chemimechanical pulp markets had no obvious fluctuations, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The de - stocking speed of domestic ports was lower than expected, and the port inventory remained high for a long time, so the supply - loose pattern has not changed substantially [8] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States remained weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills gradually emerged. Weak domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, the paper was in a surplus state, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the overall output of finished paper did not increase significantly. The over - capacity in the paper sector led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Now in the traditional peak season of the industry, downstream paper mills are cautious in purchasing raw materials and have not carried out large - scale stockpiling [8]