丙烯日报：煤价大幅下跌，成本端支撑预期转弱-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; demand is picking up but supply pressure remains, with limited upward drivers, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Local PDH unit maintenance boosts and the restart of downstream units brings demand increment, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The propylene spot price rebounds after hitting the bottom, but the futures price falls, mainly due to the sharp decline in coal prices and the weakening expectation of cost - side support in the futures trading. The overall supply of propylene remains loose, the factory inventory pressure is still high, the demand - side support has increased, and the cost support is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [16][18][19] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - The report provides data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][47] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows the factory inventory of propylene and PP powder [63]