氯碱日报：关注PVC反倾销税进展-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Attention should be paid to anti - dumping tax policies and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply decreases due to more device maintenance, and demand is complex with different situations in different sectors. Cost support exists, and the price may be supported by new alumina plants' procurement [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,520 yuan/ton (-81), the East China basis is -40 yuan/ton (+61), and the South China basis is 20 yuan/ton (+31) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -125 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is 2.3 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.2 tons (-1.2), the social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall start - up rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,286 yuan/ton (-5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 152 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 736.8 yuan/ton (-39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -30.97 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: One device is planned for maintenance this week, most currently under - maintenance devices are being restored, and new capacity is gradually being put into production. The supply is abundant [3] - Demand: The downstream start - up rate decreases, and the low - price procurement improves, but the overall procurement sentiment is average [3] - Export: The Indian BIS certification is cancelled, and the expectation of anti - dumping tax cancellation increases. Exports are still based on volume at the expense of price, and export orders are stronger month - on - month. However, on September 27th, India launched an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers [3] - Inventory: The social inventory is slightly decreased, but the absolute value of inventory is high. The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: Device maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3] - Demand: The alumina factory in Shandong has a vehicle - pressing phenomenon, and the receiving price is lowered to 720 yuan/ton on the weekend, driving down the local spot price. The alumina start - up rate is slightly increased. The non - aluminum end is mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the demand will weaken in the off - season. The delivery price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region in November 2025 is around 850 - 915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 - 60 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: The high - strength caustic soda has support from low - price orders, the 50% caustic soda in Shandong is destocked, the 32% caustic soda is stocked up, and the overall inventory in Shandong is increased. The inventory in Jiangsu is generally destocked [3] - Price support: There are many expectations for the alumina factory to be put into production in Guangxi, but the production time is highly uncertain. The caustic soda tender is in progress, which may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3] - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong will increase in November, the price of liquid chlorine is relatively weak, the chlor - alkali profit is at a low level compared with the same period, and cost support still exists [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side trading: Range - bound, and opportunistically conduct positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] - Inter - period trading: Wait - and - see [4] - Cross - variety trading: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side trading: Range - bound [5] - Inter - period trading: Go long on the SH12 - 01 spread when the price is low [5] - Cross - variety trading: None [5]