Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, while the rating for BR is also neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of rubber is strongly supported as domestic and foreign natural rubber raw material prices remain at a year-on-year high. With the gradual increase in recent arrivals in China and no obvious highlights in demand, there is expected to be some inventory accumulation space in the later period. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which will be conducive to the further expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to maintenance support, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials. The upstream butadiene is still in a weak situation, and the inventory accumulation pattern may continue [11] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,345 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,505 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan-produced full latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 standard rubber was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.8664 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2] - The ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a decrease of 1% from the previous month; the consumption of natural rubber was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on November 7, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2025 totaled 667,000 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared with 659,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [2] - From January to September 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70% [3] - On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, ending the previous two consecutive months of "double growth" trend. However, from the cumulative performance of the whole year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars from January to October were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, still maintaining a relatively stable growth rhythm [3] - According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of the EU passenger car market in September 2025 increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the RU basis was -445 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 695 yuan/ton (+30), and the NR basis was 763.00 yuan/ton (+17.00); the full latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-50), and the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between the full latex and the 3L was -350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 3,800 yuan/ton (-150) [4][5] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg (+0.22), the price of Thai glue was 56.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 64.29% (-1.08%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.99% (+0.10%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (-10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the BR basis was -155 yuan/ton (-50), the ex-factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -1,556 yuan/ton (+433) [8] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high-cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+3.91%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+80) [10] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Due to the strong cost support and the expected increase in supply later, the supply-demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and 05. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance. The supply is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials [11]
化工日报：成本端支撑仍存-20251119
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-19 02:32