聚烯烃日报：需求维持偏淡，成本端支撑转弱-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PE prices continue to decline in a volatile manner due to weakened cost - side support and an unimproved supply - demand imbalance. It will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - PP's weak supply - demand situation is hard to reverse, and the cost - side support also weakens. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for inter - period trading, conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L main contract closed at 6785 yuan/ton (-58), PP main contract at 6392 yuan/ton (-75). LL North China spot was 6840 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 6900 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6480 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was 55 yuan/ton (+48), LL East China basis 115 yuan/ton (+108), PP East China basis 88 yuan/ton (+75) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 83.1% (+0.5%), PP operating rate 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was 181.4 yuan/ton (+5.5), PP oil - based production profit - 428.6 yuan/ton (+5.5), PDH - based PP production profit - 278.7 yuan/ton (-65.3) [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL import profit was - 20.7 yuan/ton (-11.8), PP import profit - 176.9 yuan/ton (+31.3), PP export profit - 4.4 dollars/ton (+1.5) [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 50.0% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 50.4% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 62.6% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Cost: Coal prices dropped significantly, and oil prices fluctuated widely with long - term supply - demand pressure, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - Supply: Newly added device shutdowns in Ningxia Baofeng and Jilin Petrochemical, restarts in Zhenhai Refining and Sinochem Quanzhou. Future planned maintenance is limited, the operating rate continues to rise, and new production capacities such as Guangxi Petrochemical are gradually released, so supply pressure persists [2]. - Demand: PE downstream overall operating rate declined month - on - month. Agricultural film demand is expected to shrink, and packaging film operating rate decreased month - on - month. Overall downstream demand is still limited [2]. - Inventory: Due to the unimproved supply - demand contradiction, inventory pressure persists, and there is a lack of upward drivers in the short term [2]. 3.2.2 PP - Cost: Coal prices dropped significantly, and although international oil prices fluctuated widely and the price of propane rebounded slightly, cost support is still limited [3]. - Supply: Newly added device shutdowns in Sinochem Quanzhou Line 1 and Guangdong Petrochemical Line 2, and the full - scale shutdown of Juzhengyuan's 120 - million - ton PDH device for maintenance. Although short - term temporary maintenance eases supply pressure, it has limited impact on the oversupply pattern. Upstream is actively reducing prices to sell, but demand is weak, and inventory clearance pressure is high [3]. - Demand: Downstream overall operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis when prices are low. Demand follow - up is still weak [3]. - Market Outlook: The loose supply - demand fundamentals may limit its rebound space, and it will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. It is in a short - term volatile pattern, and prices are still under pressure in the long term [4]. - Inter - period: Conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [4]. - Inter - variety: No recommendation [4]